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Office estimate found that a pandemic the scale of
which occurred in 1957 would reduce real GDP by
approximately 1%, ¡°but probably would not cause
a recession and might not be distinguishable from
the normal variation in economic activity.¡±
The 1918-19 pandemic, which caused an astound-
ing ten times as many deaths per million as the
1957-58 pandemic, also failed to produce econom-
ic disaster.
Although the US entered the 1918-19 pandemic
in poor economic shape thanks to the Great War,
according to economists Efraim Benmelech and
Carola Frydman, the Spanish flu left almost no
discernible mark on the aggregate US economy.
According to some estimates, real gross national
product actually grew in 1919, albeit by a modest
1% (Romer 1988).
In new work, Velde (2020) shows that most indica-
tors of aggregate economic activity suffered mod-
estly, and those that did decline more significantly
right after the influenza outbreak, like industrial
output, recovered within months.
Nor can the pandemic be blamed for the 1921 re-
cession, because by then the decline in output had
all to do with a collapse in commodity prices when
post-war European production finally recovered.
How Do Pandemics Affect Economic Growth?
Not surprisingly, then, we find relatively mild esti-
mates in a 2009 World Bank report estimating the
economic consequences of new pandemics.
The authors concluded that moderate and severe
pandemics would lead to GDP declines of 2¨C5 per-
Or, as a 2009 Reuters report summarized it:
If we get hit with something like the 1957 Asian
flu, say goodbye to 2 percent of GDP. Something
as bad as the 1918¨C19 Spanish flu would cut the
world¡¯s economic output by 4.8 percent and cost
more than $3 trillion.
Not even a 1918-sized pandemic was expected to
produce the sort of economic carnage we now see
from COVID-19.
The Reaction In 2020
Needless to say, the economy today appears to
be in far worse shape in the wake of the 2020
pandemic than in the days following the 1957¨C58
outbreak, or even in 1919.
As of April 2020, the unemployment rate has bal-
looned to 14.4 percent, the highest rate recorded
since the Great Depression.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve, meanwhile, forecasts
a drop in GDP of more than 40 percent. More mild
estimates suggest drops of 8 to 15 percent. If the
milder predictions prove true, then the current
downtown is ¡°only¡± the worst since the Great De-
pression. If the Atlanta Fed is right, then we¡¯re in
an unprecedented economic disaster.
The World Bank¡¯s estimates of even a ¡°severe¡±
pandemic, which predicted a GDP drop of around 5
percent, don¡¯t even come close to the estimates for
the 2020 collapse.
And why should they? The World Bank report didn¡¯t
anticipate the global economic shutdown imposed
on billions of human beings by the world¡¯s regimes.
Thus, the bank¡¯s estimates assumed that economic
losses would be limited to absenteeism, disrupted
trade and travel and declining demand due directly
to disease or fear of disease.
So why the enormous difference in economic ef-
fects? The answer almost certainly lies in the fact
that governments in 2020, unlike in any other
period in American history, engaged in widespread
business closures, ¡°stay-at-home¡± orders and other
state-mandated and state-enforced actions, that
led to widespread layoffs and plummeting eco-
nomic output.
Defenders of government-coerced ¡°lockdowns¡±
have insisted that fear of the virus would have de-
stroyed the economy even without lockdowns, but
there is no historical precedent for this claim, and
no current evidence to support it.
Although some survey data has been proffered to
suggest that more than 60 percent of Americans
say they plan to comply with stay-at-home orders,
this merely tells us how people make plans when
threatened with fines, police harassment, and
other coercive measures.
In reality, the experience of the 1957-58 pandemic
- or even the 1918-19 pandemic - gives us no rea-
son to believe that joblessness should be increas-
ing at unprecedented rates and that GDP would
collapse by catastrophic levels.
In a modern industrialized economy, that sort of
economic damage is only achievable through gov-
ernment intervention, such as socialist coups,
Health & Nurturing
2020 June/July
Pg 7 - The Sunshine Express
wars and forced economic shutdowns in the
name of combating disease.
The cost in terms of human life will be sig-
nificant. One study contends that the current
economic downturn could lead to seventy-five
thousand ¡°deaths of despair¡±.
This is not shocking, however, since the fatal
effects of unemployment and economic de-
cline have been known for decades.
Defenders of lockdowns will likely continue to
claim that ¡°we have no choice¡± but to con-
tinue lockdowns for long periods of time. At
the very least, many claim that the lockdowns
until now have been ¡°worth it¡±.
Yet the efficacy of lockdowns remains an open
question, and has hardly been proven. Mean-
while, the world faces the worst economic
disaster experienced in centuries.
It didn¡¯t have to be this way.
notably the 2002 SARS epidemic, which gained
considerable attention from the medical and sci-
entific community.
There¡¯s no telling what side effects a potential
new vaccine could cause.
The petition also cites the possible use of the
stem cells from aborted fetuses in medical
research, a practice in some scientific research
projects that many Christians have found to be
gravely immoral.
The health minister of the United Kingdom is
refusing to rule out the notion of a mandatory
(**Colorado Democrats are currently attempting
to mandate vaccines, including Orwellian manda-
tory ¡°re-education¡± for parents who refuse - ed.)
PETITION: No To Mandatory Vaccination For The
Coronavirus! Sign The Petition Here:
Speak Up Against Mandates
Half A Million Sign Petition
Against Compulsory COVID-19 Vaccine
Published May 28, Written by Richard Moor-
head: More than half a million people have
already signed a petition created by LifeSite-
News rejecting the notion of a mandatory
coronavirus vaccine.
The petition has created more than 532,000
online signatures. It was created in early May.
The lion¡¯s share of petition signers are from
the United States, with tens of thousands in
the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia.
¡°The enormous response against a mandatory
vaccination program for the coronavirus is
truly global in nature,¡± said Gualberto Garcia
Jones, LifeSite¡¯s director of advocacy.
¡°This is something people around the world
are very concerned about, and which many
The petition breaks down the fundamental
violation of essential liberties that a prospec-
tive mandatory vaccine effort would entail.
¡°Fear of a disease which we know very little
about, relative to other similar diseases, must
not lead to knee-jerk reactions regarding
public health, nor can it justify supporting the
hidden agenda of governmental as well as
non-governmental bodies that have apparent
conflicts of interest in plans to restrict per-
sonal freedoms.¡±
The petition cites concern with the credibil-
ity of globalist billionaire Bill Gates, who has
poured an immense amount of resources into
the development of an entirely hypothetical
coronavirus vaccine.
¡°And, while some people, like Bill Gates, may
have a lot of money, his opinion and that of
his NGO (the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)
- namely, that life will not return to normal till
people are widely vaccinated - should not be
permitted to influence policy decisions on a
coronavirus vaccination program.¡±
There¡¯s reason to be skeptical that a vaccine
will even ever be developed for COVID-19. No
vaccine exists for any of the other coronavirus
that are known to infect humans, most
It was her first night caring for a particular
elderly patient.
When he grew sleepy, she wheeled his chair
as close to the bed as possible and then, using
the techniques that she had learned in school,
grasped him in a bear hug to lift him onto the
But she couldn¡¯t clear the top of the mattress.
So she grabbed him again, summoned all her
might and hoisted him onto the bed.
Later on, when the night shift nurse arrived, she
recounted what had happened.
¡°Funny,¡± the night shift nurse said, looking
puzzled, ¡°usually I just ask him to get in bed,
and he does.¡±
As she was admitted to the hospital prior to a
procedure, the clerk asked for her wrist, saying,
¡°I¡¯m going to give you a bracelet.¡±
¡°Has it got rubies and diamonds?¡± she asked
¡°No,¡± he said. ¡°But it costs just as much.¡±
Healthful Humor